When 1 in 88 is Really 1 in 29

In 2007 The CDC announced that autism affected 1 in 150 children in the United States.  What the CDC failed to make clear to the general public is that the numbers they reported in 2007 were actually from data collected in 2002.  The numbers were five years old.  After the 2007 announcement from the CDC, Raymond W. Gallup and F. Edward Yazbak, M.D. FAAP wrote an article titled, “When 1 in 150 is Really 1 in 67.” As the authors of that article explained, the data reported in 2007 involved 8 year-old children who were born in 1994.

In March of 2012, The CDC announced a new autism rate of 1 in 88 children (1 in 54 boys) in the United States.  True to form, The CDC failed to make it clear that the numbers they reported on March 29, 2012 were from data collected in 2008. The numbers are four years old.  The CDC also failed to mention that their number of 1 in 88 reflects their calculation of autism for 8 year-old children who are enrolled in the Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring (ADDM) Network.  This study monitors the rate of autism among children in 14 communities in the United States.  The following map of the United States shows the states (in blue) where ADDM data is collected. However, please realize that even though the STATES are colored in blue, the data is only collected from very specific areas within each state.  I think this is a little misleading, but then, we’re talking about The CDC so what can you expect?

States where ADDM data was collected for the year 2008 - reported March 29, 2012.


When I look at the map above, the first thing I notice is that the information used to estimate the autism rate was gathered from states that, according to IDEA data, do not have the highest rates of autism.  Again… It just seems that if The CDC really wanted to know the true extent of the autism epidemic (or really wanted to report it accurately), they would look at the areas where the rate is known to be the highest.  Wouldn’t you think?

The table below shows the autism rate by state, according to the U.S. IDEA data.  This is data that is reported by public school systems throughout the U.S. and reflects children who have an autism diagnosis and are receiving intervention services through the school system.

Looking at the table above and comparing that with the map of ADDM sites, we can see that of the ten states that have the highest rates of autism, according to the IDEA’s data, only one (Pennsylvania) was even looked at by The CDC. Well, maybe we should cut The CDC a break. After all, the table above shows the autism rate for the 2009-2010 school year and the ADDM data was gathered in 2008.

This graph is from 2008-2009 school year… admittedly still too close to the 2008 data collection for The CDC to plan. Somewhere I have the graphs from earlier years, but for now I’m just going to have to go on record as saying that in general, the states where the autism rate tends to be highest (according to IDEA) are states that are north of The Mason Dixon Line. There are several possible reasons for this… northern states get less sunlight proportionately, so people who live in the north get less vitamin D.  Northern states also have much higher concentrations of heavy metals in the environment from coal mining and coal burning power plants. This is important because it’s not just the mercury and aluminum in the vaccines that causes autism.

Vaccines contain free glutamic acid, which destroys glutathione. Couple that with pediatrician’s advice to “take Tylenol” (which also destroys glutathione) and you have a child whose system is not able to detoxify. When a child is not able to detoxify and he or she lives in parts of the country where there are high levels of heavy metals (and other types of pollution), you get higher rates of autism. The metals and other toxins in vaccines are doing a lot of damage… but even without the metals in the vaccines, the fact that glutathione is depleted by the free glutamic acid in them means that even if you got rid of all of the mercury and aluminum, vaccines would still cause the neuro-immune-gastrointestinal problems known as “autism.” And just as we can see from the graphs of Texas (below), the damage will be more pervasive in areas where there are lots of environmental toxins.  It’s not just vaccines and it’s not just (other) environmental toxins… it’s BOTH.

I should clarify that the northern states are certainly not the only places where there are high levels of pollution – and there are plenty of heavy metals in many of the southern states as well. Texas, for example, has an abundance of pollution, including that which comes from coal and oil. To see how environmental pollution correlates with the autism rate, please look at the next graph:

Comparison of Autism Rates in Texas Schools with Pollution in Texas Counties.

Okay, so I guess my question is… Why is The CDC not looking at this?

Why do they continue to act like they have no idea what is causing the autism epidemic?

Here’s a clue…

To read more about mercury poisoning and autism, please visit Safeminds (after you finish here, of course).

If The CDC actually started gathering data for their autism prevalence reports from places where vast numbers of children are being poisoned by environmental mercury because they cannot detoxify and are continually exposed to it, more and more people would become aware that what we call “autism” IS mercury poisoning.  The CDC cannot allow that to happen, so once again, true to form, they refuse to study the children who got sick and they refuse to study the connection between vaccines, environmental toxins, and “autism.”

Back to the numbers…

After the 1 in 88 number was announced, I did a little bit of chicken scratch in an effort to determine what might be a closer estimate of the rate of autism.  Here is what I came up with:

I told you it was chicken scratch...

I’ll break it down…

The CDC reported that their “new” numbers represent a 78% increase over the previous number of 1 in 150.  Remember, 1 in 150 comes from data regarding children who were 8 years old in 2002.  The 1 in 88 number is regarding 8 year olds and the data was gathered in 2008.  The children were born in 1994 and 2000, respectively.  So to calculate the yearly rate of increase, I divided 78% by six, for an estimated annual increase of 13%.

According to The CDC, the rate among 8 year-olds in 2008 was 1 in 88.  Calculating the yearly increase (13%) yields the following estimates of the autism rate for 8 year-olds:
  • 1 in 78 (2009)
  • 1 in 69 (2010)
  • 1 in 61 (2011)

The current number (2012) for 8 year-old children diagnosed with autism is estimated to be 1 in 54.

To get an idea of the current incidence, including those younger children who have already been diagnosed but are not counted by The CDC because they are not yet 8 years old, I extrapolated out five years at the same 13% rate of increase.


Estimated rate of autism among children who are currently (2012) between 3 and 5 years of age.

Estimated rates of autism among U.S. children in 2012:

  • 7 year olds – 1 in 48
  • 6 year olds – 1 in 42
  • 5 year olds – 1 in 37
  • 4 year olds – 1 in 33
  • 3 year olds – 1 in 29

Extrapolating out for the next ten years at the same 13% yearly increase, the predicted rate of autism among 3 year-olds…

  • 2013 = 1 in 26
  • 2014 = 1 in 23
  • 2015 = 1 in 20
  • 2016 = 1 in 18
  • 2017 = 1 in 16
  • 2018 = 1 in 14
  • 2019 = 1 in 12
  • 2020 = 1 in 11
  • 2021 = 1 in 10
  • 2022 = 1 in 9

Sobering.  Isn’t it?

Think about this when The CDC tells you there’s no need to panic….

The Cost of Autism:

In 2006, the cost of caring for a person with autism over the lifespan was estimated to be about $3.2 Million.  And the costs of caring for all persons with autism in the United States was estimated at $35 Billion per year.

In mid-March, Autism Speaks released the results of research funded by that organization, indicating that the yearly cost of caring for Americans with autism has tripled since 2006, with an annual cost of $126 Billion. Interestingly, the report from Autism Speaks puts the cost spent per person at $2.3 Million over the lifespan, reflecting a decrease of more than half a million dollars per person when compared with results from 2006. It is not clear why the cost per person has come down… From what I have been hearing from many of my friends who are parents of children who carry an autism diagnosis, I believe the lower estimates of the cost of lifetime care may be related to the fact that more and more children are being denied the early intervention services they so desperately need. As funding for programs is cut, so are the services for children with autism.  If you don’t provide funding for services, the overall cost per person comes down.  The fact that the annual rate spent providing for all persons with autism has tripled is an indication that we do indeed have an epidemic on our hands.

We are spending $600,000 less per person, but the bottom line has tripled?

Tell me how that makes sense if it’s not time to panic?

One Last Thought…

As you ponder the thought of 1 in 9 children with autism by the year 2022, consider this:  As high as the autism rate is among the general population, it is even higher among children of military personnel.  And, if you are a child with autism and your parents happen to be in the military, you are even less likely than your non-military peers to receive early intervention services, which means you are more likely to have a poorer outcome over the long run.

Now think about this…  Historically, children of military personnel are six times more likely to enlist or be commissioned into military service. In my own family, my husband served 24 years. His brother served 22 years. Their father served 20 years.  Between the three of them, they served 66 years in the United States’ military.  That legacy stops with my children.  They are not fit to serve in the military.  They can’t pass the physical.


  • Vaccine manufacturers are protected from liability, which results in zero motivation for them to make safe or effective products.
  • The reason vaccine manufacturers continue to be protected from liability is because, in the extremely remote possibility that we may face a biological weapons attack, “we will need their vaccines… it’s a matter of national security.”
  • Because of their faulty products being forced on our children, within the next 20-30 years, there will be virtually no young people in America who are fit for military service.

To quote one of my favorite musical artists… Isn’t it ironic?


Add a comment »28 comments to this article

  1. With drone technology the powers that be won’t need as many military people in the ranks . . . we also won’t need as many farmers or law enforcement.

    Gives some credence to the depopulation theory behind modern vaccines, no?

    The government knows it cannot sustain all these people at the current rate of spending and consuming.

    But just keep calling me a conspiracy theorist.


    • This is the point! our children are collateral damage of some evil people that wants to play “god” or think they are in a very insane way, kind like a sociopath would, and select who lives and who should not! and no, you are not conspiring…I think you know what you are saying very much.


  2. I suspect the most likely reason for geographic differences in the incidence of identified autism is differences in teacher quality and quality of healthcare. If schools and pediatricians are not screening for autism, they are more likely to miss cases. A major weakness of the data collection method noted above is that it only counts identified cases, while failure to identify autism in a timely manner has been a challenge in our healthcare system.


  3. WOW, finally I can’t believe the numbers. I also have a son now 20yrs old. And its easy to see there something very wrong, very wrong.

    In 1991 I gave birth to a beautiful baby boy and it stayed that way until 2 and a half years old.

    You know the rest of my story already.

    Thank You for this information.



  4. EXCELLENT REPORT BY THE WAY!!! thank you very much for your hard work.


  5. Wow! Very sobering, indeed. Well the only saving grace is what SFM said above about drones fighting future military battles. My autistic son will never be physically able to serve in the military, but he can sure as hell steer them drones or any other computer related gizmo a heck of a lot better than any neurotypical. Maybe this is the governement’s plan after all.


  6. While I totally agree with the great toxicity of mercury and other toxic elements like As, Cd, Pb ecc. on nervous system because the large scientific literature supporting these theory, I cannot agree with the theory of glutathione depletion by paracetamol if the recommended dose is administered. Someone has showed it? Are there human/animal experiments supporting this theory? I talk about normal dose of paracetamol.


    • Unfortunately, there are no tests to show this. No one has tested a “safe dose” or the safety or efficacy of any of the current vaccines.


  7. If you go by the Korean study, it’s more like 1 in 25 already.


  8. Each coal fired Plant expels about 48 tons of Mercury each year, and there are about 1200 of these plants in the USA… I live on the west coast in Washington and there is only one plant and we get no contaminates from it …but all the fish in the streams on the Peninsula of Wn are contaminated with Mercury… I think it comes from China across the Pacific ocean.
    When they vaccinate the kids it puts more mercury in our kids systems and they just don’t have a chance to expel all those heavy metals.
    We have to figure out how to contain Mercury that is spewed across this country…and that is to make those coal fired plants to contain all heavy metals or shut them down. We have to get more renewable energy put in place to take up the slack from all those destructive coal fired plants.
    If you want to save your child from this problem…just stop vaccinating you kids. as most of those vaccines are useless and just weaken the immune system.
    There is a product that will remove Mercury and all heavy metals from the body…and it is MMS read about it on this website http://www.jimhumble.biz I have been taking it for 5 years and I don’t get sick anymore, and I’m 79 yrs old now. Just check it out for your own safty.


  9. wow I am so shocked by what I’ve just read! it’ll be a zombie nation in the future, all doped up on drugs. it freightens me.


  10. When I was younger I saw baby toys being recalled for small traces of lead in the paint. These toys were made in china. I have always entertained the possibility that china is “giving our children autism.” When the majority of our young men have autism, who will be left to defend the country? It’s just a thought, but it is very scary to think of our society when autism becomes typical.


  11. And if people think the unemployment situation is bad today? We will not have the resources to take care of those children. The problem was that autism was differentiated from mental retardation because no famous person wanted anyone to know they had a retarded child. What we do know is that alcohol is the leading cause of mental retardation in the western hemisphere. In Milwaukee they can no longer grade children on the scale of A through F. They have gone to what amounts to pass/fail. We also have a vast portion of our state where the deer have Chronic wasting disease. I can tell you that the beef is not as good in Wisconsin as other states, it tastes rancid by comparison.


  12. Mercury poisoning and autism? You are right on that one!!! I recognized that in Grade School right off the bat that that Vax was bad! I have not had a flu shot in 28 years!!! And where do they say the flue always originates from? Communist China! And who makes those Vaccines, if you have ever worked in Corporate America you realize quite quickly that it is populated with mean people. That is also a sign of brain damage to the area of the hippocampus. Alzheimers patients are like that! The hippocampus goes and so does your humanity!


  13. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-T-Z/USA–Nuclear-Power/#.Ukgzvj_ZWSo

    Could there be a link between States that have nuclear power and those that do not? Also in terms of the direction ground water flows in relation to those plants? In Waukesha County Wisconsin the ground water is poisoned with Radium and no one knows where it came from, isn’t that responsible State Government?


  14. My son’s high school teacher says half of his class meet all of the criteria for mild to severe Autism but missed screening and diagnosis. I know some of these children and agree. This is not just my child’s class but all of the teachers she knows talk about it in their classes as well. The numbers are not even accurate.


  15. I didn’t go through all the comments here but I wanted to point out to the author: One thing within the military that you didn’t address that may also play a role in your theories, Any military member just gets lined up and injected with whatever the new vaccine is. My husband is a gulf war vet and said they never told him what he was getting. He served during the Gulf war, as this was the beginning of the chemical war threats, he was sure he got something for that. Could it have changed his genetics enough so that like yourself his children could have been effected. Thank Goodness our four have been spared, as I was a follower until they forced me to get a flu shot to keep my job. However, his brother also a vet during that same time, has two children and one is on the spectrum.


    • And possibly higher levels of environmental toxins on base, too? Like ammunition etc.


    • I absolutely agree. Our son has autism and I have always blamed the vaccines his father received in the army. He was in the Gulf War also.


  16. what about the statistics in other parts of the world? can we eliminate of the causes by looking else?


    • After the IOM recommended thimerosal be removed from infant and childhood vaccines, the manufacturers did not stop making them; they just sold them to other countries. China bought up a lot of U.S. made vaccines containing thimerosal and the result was 1 million new cases of autism the following year.
      Neil Z. Miller has conducted and published a study using regression analysis to explore the association between vaccines administered (number and timing) and infant mortality rate in developed countries. The results indicate the more vaccines given, the higher the mortality rate.


  17. I heard a theory recently that maybe it’s got something to do with parents waiting longer and longer to start having children. I know women are always conscious that their eggs can get “old” – but men are told they don’t need to worry because they are always generating “new” sperm over their lifetime, but it makes me wonder – the sperm may be “new” but the body that is generating it is 50+ (not to mention exposed to how many environmental toxins over that lifespan).


    • I think your last comment is the key to that study. Longer life on a toxic planet means more exposures and more alterations in DNA to be passed to offspring.


  18. Why is Vermont so low in 2008 and then way at the top in 2009. Were they not collecting numbers.


  19. I love your articles. Thank you for your work. One other issue I would encourage readers to consider is the impact of vaccines will play on the NT’s children of the 90’s future children. They may have escaped an autism diagnosis but I hate to think of what is to come. World changer.


  20. As a mother of an autistic 3 year old boy, I agree with you 100%.


  21. The mercury is in the high fructose corn syrup so it is in almost every processed food we eat. The vaccines are not causing the problem – our poisoned food is causing this skyrocketing level of autism and ADHD in children and increasing the rate of autoimmune diseases and food allergies in adults. Did you ever wonder why so many people are now eating gluten free, wheat free, or even dairy free foods? President Obama is aware of this but has done nothing to ensure that we have a safe food supply.


    • It’s both.
      Vaccines given in utero and starting on the first day of life deplete glutathione and metallothioneine, making it impossible for some infants and children to detoxify. The neuro-immune toxins also damage enzymes throughout the body, including DPP-IV, which is necessary to break down gluten and casein. There is a synergistic toxic effect of glyphosate (in GMOs) and the aluminum an viruses in vaccines that is causing the over-replication of viruses throughout the body, while simultaneously depleting essential and trace minerals.


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